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Reliable Statistical Guarantees for Conformal Predictors with Small Datasets

Sánchez-Domínguez, Miguel, Lacasa, Lucas, de Vicente, Javier, Rubio, Gonzalo, Valero, Eusebio

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require a thorough data-agnostic uncertainty quantification analysis before these can be deployed for any safety-critical application. The standard approach for data-agnostic uncertainty quantification is to use conformal prediction (CP), a well-established framework to build uncertainty models with proven statistical guarantees that do not assume any shape for the error distribution of the surrogate model. However, since the classic statistical guarantee offered by CP is given in terms of bounds for the marginal coverage, for small calibration set sizes (which are frequent in realistic surrogate modelling that aims to quantify error at different regions), the potentially strong dispersion of the coverage distribution around its average negatively impacts the relevance of the uncertainty model's statistical guarantee, often obtaining coverages below the expected value, resulting in a less applicable framework. After providing a gentle presentation of uncertainty quantification for surrogate models for machine learning practitioners, in this paper we bridge the gap by proposing a new statistical guarantee that offers probabilistic information for the coverage of a single conformal predictor. We show that the proposed framework converges to the standard solution offered by CP for large calibration set sizes and, unlike the classic guarantee, still offers relevant information about the coverage of a conformal predictor for small data sizes. We validate the methodology in a suite of examples, and implement an open access software solution that can be used alongside common conformal prediction libraries to obtain uncertainty models that fulfil the new guarantee.

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  Genre: Research Report (0.64)
  Industry: Aerospace & Defense > Aircraft (0.46)

Do Natural Language Descriptions of Model Activations Convey Privileged Information?

Li, Millicent, Arroyo, Alberto Mario Ceballos, Rogers, Giordano, Saphra, Naomi, Wallace, Byron C.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent interpretability methods have proposed to translate LLM internal representations into natural language descriptions using a second verbalizer LLM. This is intended to illuminate how the target model represents and operates on inputs. But do such activation verbalization approaches actually provide privileged knowledge about the internal workings of the target model, or do they merely convey information about its inputs? We critically evaluate popular verbalization methods across datasets used in prior work and find that they can succeed at benchmarks without any access to target model internals, suggesting that these datasets may not be ideal for evaluating verbalization methods. We then run controlled experiments which reveal that verbalizations often reflect the parametric knowledge of the verbalizer LLM which generated them, rather than the knowledge of the target LLM whose activations are decoded. Taken together, our results indicate a need for targeted benchmarks and experimental controls to rigorously assess whether verbalization methods provide meaningful insights into the operations of LLMs.


IberFire -- a detailed creation of a spatio-temporal dataset for wildfire risk assessment in Spain

Erzibengoa, Julen, Gómez-Omella, Meritxell, Goienetxea, Izaro

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires pose a threat to ecosystems, economies and public safety, particularly in Mediterranean regions such as Spain. Accurate predictive models require high-resolution spatio-temporal data to capture complex dynamics of environmental and human factors. To address the scarcity of fine-grained wildfire datasets in Spain, we introduce IberFire: a spatio-temporal dataset with 1 km x 1 km x 1-day resolution, covering mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands from December 2007 to December 2024. IberFire integrates 120 features across eight categories: auxiliary data, fire history, geography, topography, meteorology, vegetation indices, human activity and land cover. All features and processing rely on open-access data and tools, with a publicly available codebase ensuring transparency and applicability. IberFire offers enhanced spatial granularity and feature diversity compared to existing European datasets, and provides a reproducible framework. It supports advanced wildfire risk modelling via Machine Learning and Deep Learning, facilitates climate trend analysis, and informs fire prevention and land management strategies. The dataset is freely available on Zenodo to promote open research and collaboration.


Natural, Artificial, and Human Intelligences

Pothos, Emmanuel M., Widdows, Dominic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human achievement, whether in culture, science, or technology, is unparalleled in the known existence. This achievement is tied to the enormous communities of knowledge, made possible by language: leaving theological content aside, it is very much true that "in the beginning was the word", and that in Western societies, this became particularly identified with the written word. There lies the challenge regarding modern age chatbots: they can 'do' language apparently as well as ourselves and there is a natural question of whether they can be considered intelligent, in the same way as we are or otherwise. Are humans uniquely intelligent? We consider this question in terms of the psychological literature on intelligence, evidence for intelligence in non-human animals, the role of written language in science and technology, progress with artificial intelligence, the history of intelligence testing (for both humans and machines), and the role of embodiment in intelligence. We think that it is increasingly difficult to consider humans uniquely intelligent. There are current limitations in chatbots, e.g., concerning perceptual and social awareness, but much attention is currently devoted to overcoming such limitations.


An Efficient Computational Framework for Discrete Fuzzy Numbers Based on Total Orders

Mir, Arnau, Mus, Alejandro, Riera, Juan Vicente

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discrete fuzzy numbers, and in particular those defined over a finite chain $L_n = \{0, \ldots, n\}$, have been effectively employed to represent linguistic information within the framework of fuzzy systems. Research on total (admissible) orderings of such types of fuzzy subsets, and specifically those belonging to the set $\mathcal{D}_1^{L_n\rightarrow Y_m}$ consisting of discrete fuzzy numbers $A$ whose support is a closed subinterval of the finite chain $L_n = \{0, 1, \ldots, n\}$ and whose membership values $A(x)$, for $x \in L_n$, belong to the set $Y_m = \{ 0 = y_1 < y_2 < \cdots < y_{m-1} < y_m = 1 \}$, has facilitated the development of new methods for constructing logical connectives, based on a bijective function, called $\textit{pos function}$, that determines the position of each $A \in \mathcal{D}_1^{L_n\rightarrow Y_m}$. For this reason, in this work we revisit the problem by introducing algorithms that exploit the combinatorial structure of total (admissible) orders to compute the $\textit{pos}$ function and its inverse with exactness. The proposed approach achieves a complexity of $\mathcal{O}(n^{2} m \log n)$, which is quadratic in the size of the underlying chain ($n$) and linear in the number of membership levels ($m$). The key point is that the dominant factor is $m$, ensuring scalability with respect to the granularity of membership values. The results demonstrate that this formulation substantially reduces computational cost and enables the efficient implementation of algebraic operations -- such as aggregation and implication -- on the set of discrete fuzzy numbers.


A Certifiable Machine Learning-Based Pipeline to Predict Fatigue Life of Aircraft Structures

Ladrón, Ángel, Sánchez-Domínguez, Miguel, Rozalén, Javier, Sánchez, Fernando R., de Vicente, Javier, Lacasa, Lucas, Valero, Eusebio, Rubio, Gonzalo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fatigue life prediction is essential in both the design and operational phases of any aircraft, and in this sense safety in the aerospace industry requires early detection of fatigue cracks to prevent in-flight failures. Robust and precise fatigue life predictors are thus essential to ensure safety. Traditional engineering methods, while reliable, are time consuming and involve complex workflows, including steps such as conducting several Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations, deriving the expected loading spectrum, and applying cycle counting techniques like peak-valley or rainflow counting. These steps often require collaboration between multiple teams and tools, added to the computational time and effort required to achieve fatigue life predictions. Machine learning (ML) offers a promising complement to traditional fatigue life estimation methods, enabling faster iterations and generalization, providing quick estimates that guide decisions alongside conventional simulations. In this paper, we present a ML-based pipeline that aims to estimate the fatigue life of different aircraft wing locations given the flight parameters of the different missions that the aircraft will be operating throughout its operational life. We validate the pipeline in a realistic use case of fatigue life estimation, yielding accurate predictions alongside a thorough statistical validation and uncertainty quantification. Our pipeline constitutes a complement to traditional methodologies by reducing the amount of costly simulations and, thereby, lowering the required computational and human resources.


The Integration of Artificial Intelligence in Undergraduate Medical Education in Spain: Descriptive Analysis and International Perspectives

Janeiro, Ana Enériz, Pereira, Karina Pitombeira, Mayol, Julio, Crespo, Javier, Carballo, Fernando, Cabello, Juan B., Ramos-Casals, Manel, Corbacho, Bibiana Pérez, Turnes, Juan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI is transforming medical practice and redefining the competencies that future healthcare professionals need to master. Despite international recommendations, the integration of AI into Medicine curricula in Spain had not been systematically evaluated until now. A cross-sectional study (July-September 2025) including Spanish universities offering the official degree in Medicine, according to the 'Register of Universities, Centers and Degrees (Registro de Universidades, Centros y Títulos RUCT)'. Curricula and publicly available institutional documentation were reviewed to identify courses and competencies related to AI in the 2025-2026 academic year. The analysis was performed using descriptive statistics. Of the 52 universities analyzed, ten (19.2%) offer specific AI courses, whereas 36 (69.2%) include no related content. Most of the identified courses are elective, with a credit load ranging from three to six ECTS, representing on average 1.17% of the total 360 credits of the degree. The University of Jaén is the only institution offering a compulsory course with AI content. The territorial analysis reveals marked disparities: Andalusia leads with 55.5% of its universities incorporating AI training, while several communities lack any initiative in this area. The integration of AI into the medical degree in Spain is incipient, fragmented, and uneven, with a low weight in ECTS. The limited training load and predominance of elective courses restrict the preparation of future physicians to practice in a healthcare environment increasingly mediated by AI. The findings support the establishment of minimum standards and national monitoring of indicators.